AFRICABIZ VOL 2 - ISSUE: 144
July 15 - October 14, 2016
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Editor: Dr. Bienvenu-Magloire Quenum
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A WORD FROM THE EDITOR

Dear visitor and international investor,

We warmly welcome you, if this is your first visit to Africabiz Online - The ultimate newsletter on trading and investing in 49 sub-Saharan African countries. If you are a regular and faithful reader, welcome back.

- IT IS MIDNIGHT MINUS ONE. THE SETUP OF A NEW GOLD BACKED RESERVE CURRENCY TO CHALLENGE THE US$ IS ALMOST COMPLETE!

Dr. Jim Willie announced, in this delivery, King Dollar is Floating Dead. That statement was made exactly one year ago - to the bewilderment of the majority of the readers.

But since then, contrary to Dr. Willie statement, the US$ had strengthened, month after month. Some analysts declaring, "...the dollar seems to be the rock on which most countries rest their currencies."

And according to the mainstream media, televisions, radios and international newspapers, the United States of America and its western allies are all on the path of economic recovery.

But, in the contrary, for the alternative media, the strength of the dollar is the tree that hides the forest of the impeding collapse of the US economy.

- So What Is The Real Situation of The US Dollar? Is It Weak or Strong?

The short term (one year) current strength of the US$ versus other currencies is visible on the chart available here, giving the impression that the US economy is doing well; contradicting Dr. Willie statement that, King Dollar Is Floating Dead, and giving room for optimism to those who think the US$ is, the rock on which most countries rest their currencies

Let's delve further to see the reality behind the veil, considering US's imports and exports benchmarked by the Baltic-Dry Index.

Four year ago, Africabiz Online discussed about the real/main reason Nato member states, France, United Kingdom and the United States of America in particular, destroyed Libya, stating the following:

"...The ongoing economic crisis (since 2008) is centered in the western part of the world. It is not global. The evidence is there for everyone to see and feel, who wish to go beyond western mainstream media's broadcast. And a trip to the East, to Qatar, Singapore, Malaysia, and Shanghai in China for example, coming from Europe or the United States, is a revelation of the booming economy existing in these countries!"

Above statement was based on the evolution of the Baltic-Dry Index (BDI). [The Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes.]

Chart below (Courtesy of tradingeconomics.com) shows BDI trending for January 2015-July 2016-period.


You would notice that from August-September 2015 to July 2016, the Index dropped from 1200 to 700. A "huge" nose dive that highlights the decline of United States's exports. (Visit following page to review BDI's daily evolution per commodity)

One could think that the decline is due to the strength of the US$, that makes it expansive for would-be international purchasers to import US's goods and services.

The following graph, confirms the progressive decrease of US's exports from July 2015 to May 2016.


The United States is the world's third biggest exporter, yet exports account only for 13 percent of GDP. Main exports are: capital goods (39 percent of total exports) and industrial supplies (28 percent). Others include: consumer goods (12 percent); automotive vehicles, parts and engines (10.5 percent); foods, feeds and beverages (7 percent). Main exports partners are: Canada (19 percent of total exports), Mexico (14 percent), China (7 percent), Japan (4 percent), Germany (3 percent) and the United Kingdom (3 percent). Click here for more on the matter

And the following graph exposes the total US's imports from July 2015 to May 2016

The United States is the world's second biggest importer. Main imports are: capital goods (29 percent) and consumer goods (26 percent). Others include: Industrial Supplies (24 percent); automotive vehicles, parts and engines (15 percent); foods, feeds and beverages (5 percent). Shipments from China represent 19 percent of the total imports followed by Canada (14.5 percent), Mexico (12 percent), Japan (6 percent), and Germany (5 percent). Click here for more on the matter.

Comparing the two charts, one notices the existing trade deficit due to the constant and progressive decrease of imports's volume. Which is not "normal" as the US$ is "supposed" to be a strong currency that should be in the position to buy "cheap" from other countries. That progressive decline of imports seems to highlight the fact that the US economy is not booming - as it should be if the dollar was really a strong currency.

In fact, the apparent strength of the US$ is "fictional" and does not translate into a strong "purchasing power" to pay for goods and services from Asian countries (China and Japan).

The supposed economic recovery is driven by currencies's speculation. Such kind of recovery does not create riches for all. The only beneficiaries are the few who dispose of liquidities to speculate on the stock market. It does not create jobs either. Which is the case currently in the States where thousand and thousand of companies, not only the small ones, are shedding personnel by the droves - to cope with the bear economy.

Based on above discussion, one could reach the following conclusions:

First, the US$, at the day of this writing on July 15, 2016, is a strong currency for international speculators in search for a "haven" in a world in turmoil. Its attractiveness, however, does not translate into a strong "purchasing power" for US companies to service the world at large or import tangible goods from Asia.

Second, in view of its lack of purchasing power to acquire tangible goods from big trading nations like China and Japan, (which will become more and more blatant in the coming months when the Gold pricing is hiked up by the Shanghai Gold Exchange - see below for more on that) the US$ is now in reality a weak currency. This second conclusion gives some credence to Dr. Jim Willie stance that King Dollar Is Floating Dead.

- Could the Weak US Dollar Sustain The Emerging Nations Onslaught to Take Over The Reserve Currency Status?

Have you ever watched something happening in slow motion? You can quite clearly sense the end result, without being in the position to clearly see what would happen in between.

Indeed, there are so much confusing and contradictory information pouring from antagonistic sources that the perception one could have of the real situation of the US economy, since the 2008's financial crisis, is blurred.

A sober observer needs to cross-read score of articles from a wide spectrum of opinion, to have a glimpse of the truth behind the veil.

That is what we did at Africabiz Online, connecting the dots between events/facts that occurred since the first Iraq/Kuwait's war (Operation Desert Storm) in 1990, through the 2008's financial crisis, until this July 2016 - to clearly see the outcome of the currencies' war.

Indeed, Operation Desert Storm, the second Iraq war (2003-2011), 2008's financial crisis, the setup of the BRICS nations organization, the destruction of Libya by Nato member states, the Ukraine's war, the ongoing war in Syria, the setup of the Chinese Interbank Payment System, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Brics nations's development bank, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and last, Brexit could be all considered as step stones; the in between events that paved the way for the emergence of a new world reserve currency to replace the US$.

[Except for Brexit, all above listed events had been covered by Africabiz Online. A search in the field at the left/top of this paragraph will provide the reader with Africabiz Online's review and analysis of these events.]

First of all, let's us notice that the main thread connecting above listed events, is the petrodollar, that is a United States dollar earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum (oil) to another country.

Till today in this month of July 2016, the Petrodollar is the cornerstone of the US supremacy in the world - since the early 1970s. Even if said supremacy is nowadays daily dented with the collapse of oil and gas prices starting from 2013.

Indeed, if countries need to amass US treasury bills in their central banks to pay for imported oil, the more the oil price nose dives, the less amount of US treasury bills they need to amass - which weakens the US$.

Further, since two years, China and Russia, respectively big importer of oil and big exporter of oil, are now trading in national currencies, the Renminbi and the Rubble. Which means less demand for US$.

This trending to trade in national currencies will skyrocket in the near future of one year maximum - as countries would be taking advantage of the new investment and trading platforms put in place by China and Russia. That is to say the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, The BRICS Development Bank, The Shanghai Gold Exchange platform and Chinese Interbank Payment System. Click here for more.

All above listed structures designed by China and Russia, would be fiercely competing with the World Bank, The International Monetary Funds which are tools managed and controlled by the United States of America.

Furthermore, in their desperate drive to defend and retain the reserve currency status they enjoy for decades, American authorities, in addition to heavy handed military interventions worldwide, made a strategic mistake. They, by all means possible kept the price of Gold down - to bolster US$ value.

That strategic mistake was quickly exploited by China and Russia, which used their huge nest of petrodollar/US dollar treasury bills to purchase thousand tons of Gold (and Silver) - worldwide. They accumulated huge quantity of physical Gold - leaving western financial centers trade in paper gold.

Which means that western economy is now solely based on Fiat money, when the eastern countries China and Russia monetary system is soon to be based on Gold and Silver.

This is a huge game changer as already stated, the BRICS established direct exchanges using national sovereign asset-based currencies to sustain their own economies (shunning the US$) and requiring others, especially the West, to do the same in exchange for their oil and industrial products.

How could the West/United States cope without going through severe and painful devaluation(s) of the US$ - in the near future, which will have dire consequences on America's economy and social fabrics?

That is the reason why several financial experts are predicting the collapse of the US economy, in the near future of six months to one year. That economic collapse would be for sure an event of biblical proportion to be remembered for ages by the world at large!

China is in the position to decide upon the pace of events. It is moving cautiously even financing some projects with its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank together with the World Bank and the International Monetary Funds - and using US$ as financing money!

The Chinese authorities are not in a hurry to assert their rising supremacy in world affairs, they are moving (apparently) slowly, meticulously considering all kinds of details; for example they provide the codes of the new Chinese Interbank Payment System to a bunch of BRICS friendly countries central banks for testing; and are reviewing/rewriting contracts's formulation in Renminbi with the Bank of International Settlement, at Bale, Switzerland.

Rumors had it that things would move fast after 2017's China New year's celebration - in February 2017, when the BRICS nations's organization would reach the critical mass of 100+ member states.

A sign to watch is when Gold price starts moving upward by increments of US$100-200 per ounce and per week; and suddenly skyrockets to the stratospheric price of US$5,000-10,000 per ounce.

When this happens, the US$, as we know it supreme since five decades running, would be no more - for all to take notice of. Having being a global currency worldwide for so long, its obituary would be announced worldwide: King Dollar Is Dead for sure and sinking; and no more floating dead. And replaced by King Yuan/Renminbi.

A sign of this is already visible on the gigantic Chinese business to business platform: alibaba.com. Till end of June 2016 pricing where stated in US$. Now more and more sellers are pricing in Renminbi.

Click the following link to review Matthew Allen article that confirms analysis made above: Another Nail in the Dollar�s Coffin: Russia and India Plan to Trade in National Currencies

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA

- Several business opportunities - component parts of the Integrated Developing Scheme described in Africans, Stop Being Poor! are listed in following table.

- NO MORE SYSTEMATIC UPDATE TO "BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES"

With the release on January 31, 2013 of Africabiz Media™ flagship eBook, Africans, Stop Being Poor! The Roadmap to Prosperity for African Nations, the systematic update of the "Business Opportunities" section ends with delivery 129.

The several deliveries about "Business Opportunities" in African countries - started since 1997 - exposed in the table above number 128. Each of these opening way to at least five additional investment opportunities, that makes around 600 (six hundred) business opportunities exposed by Africabiz Online since 1997.

That is enough for anyone searching for business opportunities in African countries, to find his bread and water to entering the promising market of 49 sub-Saharan African countries where double-digit growth rate is the norm for well planned and professionally implemented projects.

From time to time, some exceptional project might be here reported, which needs shareholders.

- This is not the end of Business Opportunities in Africa

This is not the end of the Blog thought! If you do need a specific project to be tailored for you from the ground level, to financing research and implementation supervision, please visit the support page here available open a ticket to contact Dr. Quenum & Associates for assistance.

- Interested parties - private African and international investors / companies, government agencies, international development agencies - to make contact through the Free Access Support Console available at this link

Contact through the support console will get quickest reply from Africabiz Online's staff, than contact by emails. Click here for contact information. Be advised that first contact should be through the support console to be followed by phone calls. If you are a VIP-Member, use VIP-Members Support Console available here. Before you consult please click here to review this clarification

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